By: Mike Kennedy May 1st, 2008 Category: Deep Creek Lake Market Update

The first quarter of 2008 is officially in the books for the Deep Creek Lake real estate market. Not to anyone’s surprise the first quarter of this year was a lot like the first quarter in 2007. All market signals are starting to point that 2008 will be a lot like 2007 - which was slight decrease or stable amount of transactions the rest of the year - but overall modest appreciation gains for most property owners. In 2007 things started off slow like this year but really picked up during our traditionally strong selling season of June, July, and August. A quick summary of the market is below;

Homes Sold

Thru the first quarter of 2008, 34 homes in the Deep Creek Lake area have sold with an average sold price of $637,929 - this compares to 37 homes sold in the first quarter of 2007 with an average sold price of $537,565 - a difference of only 3 homes.  These homes include all lakefront, lake access, and lake area homes.

Lots/Land

 Thu the first quarter of 2008, 18 lots have sold in the Deep Creek Lake area broken down as follows - 1 lakefront lot, 6 lake access lot, and 11 lake area lots. This compares to 21 lots sold in 2007 - 0 lakefront lots, 4 lake access lots, and 17 lake area lots.

Contracts

Currently, there are 17 residential properties under contract - 7 lakefront homes, 4 lake access homes, 2 homes a top Wisp Ski Resort, and  4 lake area homes. The highest demand thus far this year has been the higher-end lakefront homes with good settings - private Type A dock, deep water, good views, wooded, with a newer home.

 Future Factors

There are some factors on the horizon that could make the demand stronger for real estate at Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County for the rest of the year. These include;

• More vacation rentals already booked for the 2008 summer season. Some renters turn into buyers - or most renters will go back home and tell their friends, familiy, and neigbors what a great place Deep Creek Lake is. That usually spurs more people to explore real estate opportunities in this market.
• Interest rates continue to remain relatively low. Jumbo loan rates as of today are still in the mid-to low 6% range - still very low historically speaking.
•  Continued improvements to the area. A few new restaurants should be open before the start of the summer and the proposed Aqua Mountain indoor waterpark is still in the works even though plans have not yet been finalized and construction is not yet guaranteed.  

By: Mike Kennedy March 28th, 2008 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate

An article about buying a vacation home recently appeared on the CNN/Money.com website. It’s a pretty good article - and is basically about how right now is a good time to buy a vacation or second home. The author also does a good job of giving tips on how to buy a second home - from identifying the primary reasons you may want to buy a second home to suggesting that you first rent in a resort area to see how well you like it before taking the plunge and buying. 

We certainly agree with the main aspect of the article - that it is a great time to buy property at Deep Creek Lake and in Garrett County - interest rates are down and demand certainly isn’t as high as we had previously seen during our boom years just a few years earlier. These two factors can certainly help the chances of a prospective buyer getting better terms. In fact at the end of last week one of our clients locked in an interest rate of 5.625% on a conforming loan that they will be using to purchase their lake view vacation home.

However, there are a few things to point out in this article that just don’t relate to the Deep Creek Lake real estate market.

First, the author tries to generalize that all second home markets are “soft” right now. While demand is down slightly from our boom years - “soft” is hardly the case here now. Just in the last three weeks we have closed on a lakefront house at Sandy Beach for $1,379,000 (that had competing offers), a timber frame home atop Wisp Ski Resort for $1,250,000, a lakefront house on Marsh Hill Road for $880,000, and two other lakefront homes for $865,000 and $750,000 respectively. And just today one lakefront house in our market had 3 competing offers! I would hardly classify this type of activity as being “soft”.

Another thing the author tries to generalize is that the appreciation rates in all resort/second homes markets declined in 2007 - or are expected to decline in the near future. Once again, that’s not accurate for the Deep Creek Lake market. In 2007, the average sold price for a residential property in the Deep Creek Lake area was up approximately 4% over the average sold price in 2006 - from $537,498 to $559,168 - a modest gain - but at least a gain unlike other second home markets.  It is accurate to say that the value of a piece of property at Deep Creek Lake has held up much better than a property in other resort markets - such as Las Vegas, the Atlantic Coastal beach areas, and Florida just to name a few. This fact is just another reason to buy here at Deep Creek Lake - where historically the appreciation rates have done much better and should continue to do better than other resort areas. The main reason being that the lake is almost fully developed now - there just a few smaller tracts of land that have frontage on Deep Creek Lake or have access that can ever be developed in the future. Low inventory and continued demand should continue to fuel appreciation for lakefront and lake access homes in our market.

By: Mike Kennedy March 26th, 2008 Category: Deep Creek Lake Market Update

We would like to take this opportunity to give our opinion and clear up a few misconceptions and misinformation about the condition of the real estate market in Garrett County.  The old adage “if it seems too good to be true, it probably is” used in the article of March 6, 2008 in The Republican may be applicable in certain situations. (Unfortunately this article is not online and can not be linked to.) The old adage “don’t believe everything you read” may also be applicable.  Contrary to the opinions of some, the real estate market in Garrett County is alive and well and quite frankly improving each and every day. 

There is no doubt that 2007 was a year for Garrett County real estate companies, as well as buyers and sellers of Garrett County properties, to re-evaluate strategies, do some belt tightening, and find innovative ways to market their properties.  The real estate market in Garrett County over the past 20 or so years has been nothing short of amazing.  National publications have called the Deep Creek Lake real estate market one of the hottest in the east. The last several years have continued that trend and we have been in a boom market since the early 1990’s.  Any downturn at all from those highs was bound to be a shock to buyers, sellers, real estate agents, and real estate companies.  While the number of transactions in Garrett County were down in 2007 from 2006, it would have been very difficult, in any market, to sustain those levels generated over the past three or four years.  Even though the total number of sales was down, listed below are some facts that we would like to share with you.

• According to our MLS, the Metropolitan Regional Information System, the average marketing time for properties in 2007 was roughly the same as the previous five years in both the Deep Creek Lake and the Garrett County residential markets.
• The average sales price for a residential property in Garrett County actually increased in 2007 over 2006 - and so far in 2008 has increased again, roughly 21% over the previous year.
• The average sales price for a residential property in the Deep Creek Lake area also increased in 2007 over 2006 - and so far in 2008 has increased again, roughly 19% over the previous year.

What does all this information tell us? It tells us that the market isn’t as bad as the “doom and gloom” people would have you believe.  There are hundreds of ways to look at statistics and manipulate them into what you want to believe.  At Railey Realty, we choose to believe that Garrett County and Deep Creek Lake real estate is still one of the best investments a person can make, no matter how hard the national news networks are trying to convince us otherwise.

In our opinion, 2008 is looking to be a great year for real estate sales in Garrett County.  Because there are so many “spin off” businesses that rely on the real estate industry, we hope and believe they will also have a banner year.  If the last couple of months turn out to be a good barometer of what will happen in 2008, everyone in the county should benefit from the increase in real estate activity.  Our agents have been very busy recently showing properties to prospective buyers.  They have been busy listing new properties.  They have been busy writing offers and contracts.  As an owner and the Broker of Railey Realty, I am extremely excited about what lies ahead in 2008.  We look forward to continuing our efforts to help hundreds of families each year realize the “American Dream” of home ownership.

Sincerely,

Kevin D. Liller

Railey Realty

By: Mike Kennedy February 14th, 2008 Category: Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate

Like most other resort markets around the country the Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Maryland real estate market for the year ending in 2007 can be summed up in the following sentence…..Total Number of Sales Down, Average Sold Price Up.

So the question then becomes - Was Deep Creek Lake a good real estate market in 2007 or not? The answer really depends on who you ask - if you already own property here your value went up again in 2007 so their answer would be that it’s still a very good market…if you ask someone who tried to sell their property last year you would probably get a mixed reaction - most still ended up selling for what they wanted but it certainly took a little longer to get there….if you ask any local Realtor they would probably tell you the market stinks - of course they would be saying that because less sales equaled less money in their pockets last year - or in simple terms, bad for us - not so bad for our current clients, still good for past clients.

Below is a snapshot of what occurred in our market in 2007;

                                     No. of Homes Sold          Avg. Sold Price

                                   2006               2007         2006              2007

Deep Creek Lake        308                 215        $537,498      $559,168

All of Garrett County   510                 374        $396,499      $400,460

(Includes DCL)

It’s important to note that the Deep Creek Lake numbers above include everything residential in nature - homes, town homes, condos, and a few fractional ownership sales we had. It also includes a wide variety of different locations and settings within the lake market - lakefront properties, lake access properties, lake view properties, Wisp Ski Resort properties, and properties that have no access to the lake but are just in the general vicinity. Those different types of properties can vary greatly in value.

The big question we get asked now - Is it a good time to buy at Deep Creek Lake?

For those of you thinking about buying we truly believe now is probably as good of a time as there is to seriously consider buying in this area. The fundamentals are still very much in place for future appreciation - but we probably won’t see the extremely high appreciation rates we saw earlier this decade. That’s for sure.

Why is it still a good time to buy? The main factor is inventory - if our inventory of lakefront and lake access homes remains low into the future - which it should because the entire lake is almost fully developed now - prices should continue up. There is no reason to believe our inventory will ever get that high on and around the lake - there are only a few parcels left that could possibly be developed. If you talk to anyone who has been around this market their entire life they would probably concur that prices have always gone up at Deep Creek Lake - ever since it’s inception in 1925. It’s very hard to go back in history and find a time that real estate values ever went down at Deep Creek Lake.

When will the number of sales start to go back up again? It’s hard to say really - the experts predict we won’t see a positive trend in the number sales until 2009 at the earliest. From what we’ve seen so far, 2008 is starting off a lot like 2007 did. We have our normal amount of potential buyers who want to buy a vacation home for personal use and have the means to do it - it seems we lost that group of people who were buying for speculation, quick flipping, and who might have been stretching themselves financially to make it happen. Those people seemed to have disappeared over the last year or so. The national media has made a lot people think that buying real estate is a bad thing to do right now - this situation won’t change until the perception shifts back to real estate being the “cool” or “in” thing to do again. But the smart buyers are the ones buying now - before things heat back up.

Some other interesting real estate happenings that occurred in our market in 2007 -

• A new record sold price for a lakefront home was set in 2007 - a new construction spec house in The Reserve at Holy Cross sold for $2,830,000.
• Two homes sold for over $2 Million in 2007 - in 2006 only one home sold for over $2 Million in this market.
• In 2007 there were 22 homes that sold for $1 Million or more - in 2006 there were 30 homes that sold for over $1 Million.