By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 July 2nd, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Garrett County Real Estate, Uncategorized, Wisp Real Estate

If you are thinking about buying or selling a house at Deep Creek Lake or in Garrett County Maryland - one real estate statistic you may want to pay attention to now is known as the Absorption Rate - a market indicator that hasn’t been used much locally but should get some consideration to get a better feel for current conditions.

Absorption Rates at Deep Creek Lake and Wisp

What is the Absorption Rate? Basically, it’s the amount of time it will take the current inventory of homes on the market to sell based on the most recent pace of sales. For example, if 5 lakefront homes sold on average per month for the past year - and the current inventory of lake front homes for sale is 100 - then the current absorption rate would be 100/5 - or 20 months. In other words it would take about 20 months to deplete the current inventory based on the recent sales pace. Since we have many specialized segments of real estate in the Deep Creek market - here are the current absorption rates for the most popular segments;

Lakefront homes with private Type A boat docks - 89 currently on the market divided 2.5 average sold per month (30 sold in the past 12 months) = 35.6 months of inventory…or in other words there is around 3 years of inventory on the market at this current pace.

Lakefront homes with single slips -  38 currently on the market divided by .4 average sold per month (5 sold in the past 12 months) = 95 months of inventory.

Lake Access homes with single boat slips - 72 currently on the market divided by 1.33 average sold per month (16 sold in the past 12 months) = 54 months of inventory.

Lake Access homes without boat slips - 39 currently on the market divided by .58 average sold per month (7 sold in the past 12 months) = about 78 month of inventory.

Wisp Real Estate (residential atop Wisp Mountain) - 37 currently on the market divided by 1.25 average sold per month (15 sold in the past 12 months) = 30 months of inventory. Includes Villages of Wisp town homes.

Lake Area homes (meaning not “water oriented” - just homes in the general Deep Creek Lake area) - 71 homes currently on the market divided by 1.66 average sold per month (20 sold in the past 12 months) = 42 months of inventory.

Please keep in mind the absorption rate statistic is somewhat flawed by it’s own nature - it only takes into consideration recent past performance - it only looks backwards. It tends to underestimate the market going forward and the quickness of how fast things can turn around. Use this statistic carefully when evaluating your real estate opportunities.

However, this number does have some significant meaning for both potential buyers and sellers.

For buyers - a higher number means inventory is up and serious sellers will be competing for your business - thus your chances of getting a “better deal” increases.

For sellers - a higher number usually means more competition and you better make sure both the price and condition of your house compare favorably to your competition! - especially if you want to sell your house to sell in a normal marketing time frame.

Selling a house is both science and art. It’s part science because numbers and statistics are used to come up with a value based on recent selling prices of comparable homes, days on market, absorption rates, number of homes currently on the market, etc. It’s partly an art  because in a specialized resort market like Deep Creek each vacation property is unique in it’s own way - whether it’s the topography (steep vs. flat), orientation (northwest for late afternoon sun or east for morning sun), views (filtered lake views or wide open expansive lake views), boat dock (private Type A vs. single slip), condition of the house (newer vs older), etc…the list can go on and on. It’s extremely hard in this market to find two properties that are nearly identical so rarely can your compare apples to apples - except for town homes and condos.

Whether you are buying or selling Garrett County or Deep Creek Lake real estate - give us a call or drop us an e-mail - we are the experts on the local resort and vacation home market - we can guide you thru the entire process. Nobody has helped more buyers and sellers than us over the past 30 years!

By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 June 22nd, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Garrett County Real Estate

Click on the link below for new real estate listings and homes for sale in the Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Maryland area offered by Railey Realty last week - Deep Creek’s leading real estate brokerage. The link below is Google Map with additional information about each new residential, lot/land, and commercial real estate listing.

New Deep Creek Lake, Garrett County, and nearby West Virginia real estate listings - the week of June 15-June 21, 2009

The residential properties are denoted with a push pin and the building lots and acreage are denoted with the balloon graphic. Clicking on the property marker will give you a brief description and a link to additional information and pictures.

Two new lakefront homes for sale on Deep Creek Lake - 88 Silver Tree Lane and 2053 Marsh Hill Road.

88 Silver Tree Lane is offered for sale at $1,100,000 -  comes with a assigned boat slip, and has excellent vacation rental income - $64,000 in gross bookings.

2053 Marsh Hill Road is offered for sale at $1,250,000 - 190 feet of lakefront and less than 1 mile to the Wisp Ski Resort.

Also offered for sale is the Oakland Car Wash just north of the town of Oakland Maryland. The list price is $649,000. Great cash flow with this commercial real estate located on the busiest part of Rt. 219/Garrett Highway. This is a great opportunity to take advantage of the recent permanent closure of the self serve bays at the competing Super Car Wash - which was located behind the Sheetz gas station in downtown Oakland Maryland. Sheetz in Oakland is currently remodeling. For someone looking for business opportunities or an easy to run small business in Garrett County this may be it.

Please contact us if you are interested in any of these new properties - or any others listed for sale in the area. As a member of MRIS, our local MLS, we can assist with any property listed for sale - even those listed with other area real estate brokerages in Garrett County Maryland.

By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 June 19th, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Garrett County Real Estate, Uncategorized, Wisp Real Estate

Just recently, our local MLS (multiple list service) that serves the Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Maryland area added the ability to search for foreclosures, potential short sales, and bank owned (REO) properties. These types of properties are often referred to as “distressed properties”.  Most real estate buyers and investors looking for bargains often target these distressed properties first.

As I have wrote about in previous posts - our local real estate market here at Deep Creek Lake doesn’t have a significant amount of these distress sale opportunities - and this is still the case. This is unlike what is happening in other resort markets and is testament to the overall strength of our market!!

As of today here is a summary of the total number of distress sales in Garrett County;

Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Short Sales

Potential Short Sales - 10 active residential properties. Only 1 of the 10 is currently under contract or sale pending - an Overlook Villas townhome atop Wisp Mountain listed at $649,000. Of these 10 - 5 are located in the general Deep Creek Lake/Wisp Ski Resort area;

• - Red Run lakefront townhome listed for sale at $299,950.
• - Lakeland Estates lake view townhome (across from The Creamery) listed for sale at $220,000.
• - Lake access home on Brenneman Lane in the Summit subdivision listed for $649,000.
• - Lake access home on Glen Cove Road in Swanton listed for $549,000. No boat slip with this one.
• - The Overlook Villas townhome currently under contract.

The other 5 properties are located in the outlying areas of Garrett County - most in the Oakland, Mt. Lake Park and southern Garrett County area.

A short sale is basically a situation where the current homeowner owes more to the bank or lending institution than what the property is currently worth.

Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Foreclosures

Foreclosures - 12 active residential properties currently for sale in Garrett County. Nearly all have already gone thru the foreclosure process and were bought back by the bank at the public auction. The various banks are now offering these REO (real estate owned) classified assets for sale thru local real estate brokers. Of the 12 foreclosures, 6 are currently under contract. Only 2 of the 12 are located in the Deep Creek Lake area - a split lakefront home on State Park Road with a Type A dock listed for $428,601 and a house located on Route 219 near the Deep Creek Bridge.

As a member of MRIS (the name of our local mls), we at Railey Realty can provide you a complete list of these distressed properties along with additional details and photos - and we can even set you up to receive automatic e-mails when any new distressed properties hit the market. If you are looking for a bargain or a great deal - give us a call or shoot us an e-mail - we’ll be more than happy to help you search for these types of properties or any others that may interest you.

By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 June 18th, 2009 Category: 1031 Tax Deferred Exchanges, Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Vacation Rentals

Railey Mountain Lake Vacations, Deep Creek’s largest vacation rental company, is reporting that the vacation rental market at Deep Creek Lake is faring much better than other resort areas around the country.  With the slumping economy, vacation rental bookings are down nationwide about 18% from last year. In the Deep Creek Lake area rental bookings are only down about 10% from last year.

Other current happenings in the local vacation rental market include;

• - A positive sign is that 40% of all Railey Mountain Lake homeowners are ahead o f last year’s numbers. Not everyone is feeling the pain of this current slowdown. The other 60% are at the same level or down slightly.
• - On average each rental home is down about a week and a half of bookings this summer season.
• - The larger homes - the 9 bedroom and 8 bedroom homes - are still going strong. The 5 bedroom and 6 bedroom homes are currently lagging.
• - Renters are booking later and willing to sacrifice amenities for a lower price. Price is trumping everything right now to get bookings. If a property is priced properly compared to its competitors it will rent!
• - Some homeowners are being more flexible on restrictions to attract renters as well - such as allowing pets.
• - One of Railey Mountain Lake’s 9 bedroom pool houses set a record and went over $200,000 in gross rental bookings for the year.

In other positive news, future bookings for the 2009 fall season are already up 15% over last year. This may be due to the lower rates in the fall season and the fact the weather at Deep Creek in September and October is still very pleasant although certainly not hot by any means.

If you are thinking about renting your house or purchasing a vacation rental as an investment in the Garrett County area - give us a call at (800) 544-2425 or drop us an e-mail - there are some well performing rental houses currently for sale in the Deep Creek Lake area - as well as some houses that could be excellent rentals with some slight modifications. We’ve helped many clients over the years buy rental homes - we’ll be more than happy to get the buying process started for you as well. For those of you considering or in the middle of a 1031 tax deferred exchange this is one of the better performing resort markets in the country. Now is a great time to consider investing in real estate at Deep Creek Lake - inventory is up, interest rates are down, and there are some deals to be had.

By: DebraSavage dsavage@railey.com 301-616-4085 June 11th, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Fractional Ownership, Garrett County Real Estate, Wisp Real Estate

People seem to be tightening their belts and looking for the best, most reasonable and smart way to enjoy second home ownership - especially here at Deep Creek Lake. This new economy does not require complete sacrifice, but it may require smarter spending and use of our resources.

This is where Fractional Home Ownership comes into play. Typical Deep Creek Lake vacation homes are often vacant for weeks or months on end while racking up the expenses such as: electric, heat, mortgage, home insurance; all the while gathering dust and needing maintenance. And even if you rent them out you probably are experiencing the frustrations that sometimes exist with maintenance issues of accelerated wear and tear on the home and furnishings.

With Fractional Home Ownership your expenses are shared with other home owners who care about the property just the way you care for your own home. The home is fully occupied by owners and maintained each week upon the exit of the current owner.

You receive an undivided deeded interest in the property. These Fractional Homes are top of the line. So instead of paying 1.2 million to 1.5 million for a gorgeous lakefront home, that you will probably only use a very few times a year, you still get your use at a Fraction of the cost while sharing the home with other owners who care and respect their ownership. Second Homes at Deep Creek Lake currently offer a 5 Bedroom Lakefront Fractional Ownership for just $349,000.

Second Homes at Deep Creek Lake also offers that top of the mountain feel with their Fractional Overlook Villas home for 269,900. This property sits atop Wisp Ski Resort mountain with stunning water views of Deep Creek Lake Maryland.

So in these challenging economic times, having a premier Deep Creek lakefront home with Fractional Home Ownership, offers you the right to “Have Your Dream Home at a Fraction of the Cost”. Isn’t it great when you can have your cake and eat it too!!!!!!

Give us a call or drop us an e-mail if you are interested in learning about the only fractional ownership opportunities in western Maryland’s four season resort - Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County.

By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 June 9th, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Garrett County Real Estate

Click on the link below for new real estate listings and homes for sale in the Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Maryland area offered by Railey Realty - Deep Creek’s leading real estate brokerage.

New Deep Creek Lake, Garrett County, and nearby West Virginia real estate listings - the week of May 25-June 7, 2009

The residential properties are denoted with a push pin and the building lots and acreage are denoted with the balloon graphic. Clicking on the property marker will give you a brief description and a link to additional information and pictures.

Please contact us if you are interested in any of these new properties - or any others listed for sale in the area. As a member of MRIS, our local MLS, we can assist with any property listed for sale - even those listed with other area real estate brokerages in Garrett County Maryland.

By: JonBell jbell@railey.com 301-501-0735 May 13th, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Interest Rates and Loans, Obtaining a Mortgage

My friend and fellow real estate agent emailed me a link to this recent Washington Post article titled “Want a Second Home? Save Up.” Unfortunately, she didn’t read the whole article before she sent the email and assumed that it was all bad news for the Deep Creek Lake area real estate market. She should have read the article and not just the title.

In my opinion this article is very positive with some great success stories! I encourage all potential or prospective second and vacation home buyers who are attempting to time the real estate market to “actually read it”. I will provide a link to the full article at the bottom of this post.

Several points of interest should be noted:

1. Dudley Dworken of Potomac, MD had been searching for the perfect Ocean City, MD beach front condo for over 2 years and recently purchased because he thinks the market has bottomed out and he found the perfect property at the “right price”. Dworken is quoted in the article stating ” I think we bought at the perfect time.”
2. Kathy Panco, Dworken’s real estate agent, notes that the large housing inventory has begun to shrink “possibly due to increased demand.”
3. Tom and Johanna Wells got creative with financing and were able to purchase a second home in Virginia Beach, VA. The buyers had to overcome a few obstacles to make their purchase a reality but Tom is quoted in the article noting that “in light of what’s happened with the stock market and my IRA account, I’d rather put the money into this condo, something that will appreciate and that we can enjoy.”

The Deep Creek Lake area is blessed with several great banks and mortgage brokers. Buyer’s credit history, savings and monthly income are strongly evaluated during the loan process (which they should be) but most local lenders have 10% down or better second home loan programs and mortgage interest rates that are still at historical lows.

What Are The Current Deep Creek Lake Second Home Mortgage Rates?
Rate’s below provided by Deep Creek Lake BB&T as of 4/28/09

• 30 year fixed purchase under $417,000 - 4.875%
• 30 year fixed purchase over $417,000 JUMBO- 5.625%
• 15 year fixed purchase over $417,000 - 4.500%

Contact: Jerry Merrick of BB&T for more information. Office phone: (301) 387-3219
Email: JMerrick@BBandT.com

How is the Deep Creek Lake Real Estate Market?
Real estate sales in the Deep Creek Lake Area and Garrett County seem to be improving. Reports show that Garrett County, Maryland residential sales volume has almost doubled in the past 2 months.

• On February 28th 2009 there were 27 houses under contract (sale pending) and 9 building lots.
• On April 30th 2009 there were 46 houses under contract and 7 building lots under contract (sale pending).

How is Railey Realty Doing?
Of the 36 sale pending properties as of February 28th 2009, Railey Realty represented 17 of the sellers in these transactions. Of the 53 sale pending properties as of April 30th 2009, Railey Realty represented 25 of the sellers in these transactions.

*Real Estate Market Statistics provided by MRIS the Deep Creek Lake Area MLS service provider.*

Read “Want a Second Home? Save Up.” on the Washington post website at the following link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/17/AR2009041701646.html?referrer=emailarticle

By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 May 1st, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Garrett County Real Estate, Wisp Real Estate

Almost daily I get asked the question “How is the real estate market doing at Deep Creek Lake?” - and then most times the discussion eventually turns towards the national economy.

I certainly don’t claim to be an expert on the national economy but like most people I try to educate myself and learn as much as I can. Recently I ran across an article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that is very well written, easy to understand, and seems to suggest we may have just “hit the bottom” from a national economic perspective and how we might be turning the corner towards a recovery.

As for the real estate market here at Deep Creek Lake and the rest of Garrett County most of the buyers we work with these days seem to waiting until someone in the national media proclaims that we’ve “hit the bottom”. I can tell you over the past month things have picked up in our market. As of today there are 45 residential properties currently under contract. A few months ago that number was in the teens!  Now does this mean sales activity will pick back up again to the 2001-2005 real estate boom levels?  I doubt it - but this is a nice subtle, positive trend to see right now.  And maybe it’s a trend that we’ll be able to look back on in a year or two and say - “that was the bottom”??

If you are an investor or someone buying long-term for lifestyle purposes there are some good deals and great properties very much available right now at Deep Creek Lake. That may change if the pace of sales continues to improve like it has recently.  As history has shown those people and investors that buy near the bottom usually do much better than those who wait until the media proclaims we’re in a recovery. By time the media reports we’re in a recovery it’s usually too late to still get a good deal!

If you’re thinking about buying a vacation home in the Deep Creek Lake area and want to work with the area’s most experienced and knowledgeable Realtors give us a call at (800) 544-2425 or drop us an e-mail at info@railey.com. We can expertly guide you through the vacation home buying process.

By: DebraSavage dsavage@railey.com 301-616-4085 April 18th, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Garrett County Real Estate, Interest Rates and Loans, Obtaining a Mortgage

Why is now a good time to buy a house for sale at Deep Creek Lake or in Garrett County? Whether you are looking to purchase a vacation or second home at Deep Creek Lake, a cabin retreat in the woods, or if you are first time home buyer - there are two reasons that now may be the right time to buy real estate;

• Sellers now understand that we have not only have moved into - but are now lodged in a ‘Buyer’s Market’ and they must now properly and realistically price their home if they desire to sell in this current market.

-and-

• Interest rates are at historically low levels.

EXAMPLE; An $800,000 jumbo loan or mortgage on a vacation property at Deep Creek Lake at 6 percent on a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage will cost you $926,717 in interest over the life of the loan.  If interest rates increase just 1 percent - that same loan will now cost you $1,116,025.  That is an additional $189,308 in interest paid over the life of the loan!

A $400,000 conforming loan for a primary residence at today’s current rate of 4.75 percent on a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage will cost you $351,164 in interest over the life of the loan.  Once again, there is a tremendous amount of additional interest to pay if the rate rises just 1 percent. That 1% rate increase will cost you an additional $89,180.00 in interest over the life of the loan.

So, negotiate your best possible contract price and then take advantage of these historically low interest rates.  The current buyer’s market and low interest rates won’t last forever!

By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 March 18th, 2009 Category: 1031 Tax Deferred Exchanges, Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate

Just recently, I met with a client who re-listed his house (it didn’t sell last summer) and made the following comment to me that was took me a little by surprise - “I’m so glad my Deep Creek house didn’t sell last summer” - very perplexed I asked him why? - he said “Because if it would have sold I would have put that money in the stock market and I’d only have half of that money today!” This particular seller has no mortgage against the property so the cash he receives when it sells will be a significant amount.

That got me thinking - with all the recent troubles and losses in the stock market over the past few months - and the Dow Jones average dipping to lows last seen in 1996 - as an investment how does a house at Deep Creek Lake compare to the stock market over the past 10 years?

I tried to find an example of a house purchased in the late 90’s and then sold again in late 2008 or early 2009 - and a house that has had no significant upgrades or improvements during that time period.

One house that recently sold that fits this criteria is 1038 South Blakeslee - which according to the tax records was transferred on October 4, 1999 for $510,000 and recently transferred again on February 13, 2009 for $1,000,000. From what I know there were no sizable capital improvements or upgrades to the house over the past 10 years - just some repainting and upgrading of some smaller items.

Therefore, in a “what-if” scenario - after typical upfront closing costs and back-end commissions and transfer taxes - a buyer who may have purchased this house back in October of 1999 with cash could have netted a capital gain of approximately $415,000 almost 10 years later in February 2009 - which by the way is also about one year into our national recession that started at the beginning of 2008. This potential $415,000 gain was calculated as follows - the $1,000,000 transfer price less $60,000 in commissions and less another $10,000 in state and local transfer taxes leaves a net of $930,000. On the front end (or when this person may have bought this house) it would have cost approximately $5,000 in recordation taxes so this person would have had around $515,000 invested in the property. $930,000 less $515,000 equals the gain of $415,000.

If this same buyer/investor decided to use this same $515,000 in cash back on October 4, 1999 (the same day the house above was purchased) to purchase some Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK-A) he would have been able to purchase 8.98 shares as the stock closed at $57,300 per share back on that date. Berkshire Hathaway is considered to be one of the most successful stocks of all time and its chairman Warren Buffet is considered a financial genius by most.

Fast forwarding nearly 10 years - if that investor decided to sell his Berkshire Hathaway stock on February 13, 2009 (the same date the house above recently sold) he would have sold it for $88,140 per share as that was the closing price on that date. There were no stock splits or dividends paid over the nearly 10 year holding period so this investor still owned just 8.98 shares.  Not even factoring the commission expense it took to sell these shares - this investor’s capital gain could have been approximately $276,943 = ($88,140 selling price less $57,300 purchase price) x 8.98 shares.

Without a doubt, both long term investments had impressive potential gains - but the Deep Creek Lake house was able to outperform the Berkshire Hathaway stock in this scenario over the last 10 years by a little over $138,000 (the difference between $415,000 and $276,943).

Some will argue that the Deep Creek Lake house had ongoing expenses over the years that would take away from the gain - expenses such annual real estate taxes, utilities, hoa dues, maintenance, land scaping, etc - expenses that the Berkshire stock wouldn’t have had. The house certainly has expenses - but I’ll argue back that if the owner had made it a vacation rental over the holding period the rents generated would have more than offset all these expenses plus related property management fees in addition to the benefits of depreciation on his tax return. In fact not only would have these rents been in excess of all the expenses this investor probably would have seen some positive cash flow each year on top of his capital growth.

Also, not to be overlooked is this particular investor/buyer could have used this vacation house a little each year for his own personal use - improving his lifestyle by allowing his family to enjoy all the activities and recreation found in Garrett County - boating and swimming in the lake, snow skiing at Wisp, and hiking in the state parks to name just a few. I don’t think it would have been possible to get any personal use or enjoyment out of those stock certificates - I guess he could have pulled them out of his safety deposit to look at them each year but that’s about it!

Now I am in no way saying the Deep Creek Lake real estate market will outperform the Stock Market, Berkshire Hathaway stock, or any stock or investment in the future. There is no such thing as a guaranteed investment - real estate at Deep Creek Lake included! And always consult your financial and tax advisors before investing in anything - stocks, real estate, gold, etc.  And I am no way claiming to be smarter that the great Warren Buffet - but in this particular long term scenario the Deep Creek Lake investment was better than his preferred stock.  Please note, this is a long term outlook - not a short term outlook - those looking to making a quick buck in our market by holding for a few years and selling will have a very hard time doing so. But if your outlook is long term - the Deep Creek market has historically proven that it can keep up with, and quite possibly may exceed, other types of investments.

After the most recent declines in the stock market most people should start thinking where they would rather have their money parked for long term? Are you enjoying the up and down wild ride known as the stock market roller coaster or would you like a steadier and stable alternative? If you are tired of throwing up on the roller coaster ride and are seeking  to improve the quality of your lifestyle by owning a second home - give us a call - we have some ideas for you!