Absorption Rates in the Deep Creek Lake Real Estate Market
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By: Mike Kennedy mkennedy@railey.com 301-616-6106 July 2nd, 2009 Category: Deep Creek Lake Buyer Info, Deep Creek Lake Market Update, Deep Creek Lake Real Estate, Garrett County Real Estate, Uncategorized, Wisp Real Estate |
If you are thinking about buying or selling a house at Deep Creek Lake or in Garrett County Maryland - one real estate statistic you may want to pay attention to now is known as the Absorption Rate - a market indicator that hasn’t been used much locally but should get some consideration to get a better feel for current conditions.
Absorption Rates at Deep Creek Lake and Wisp
What is the Absorption Rate? Basically, it’s the amount of time it will take the current inventory of homes on the market to sell based on the most recent pace of sales. For example, if 5 lakefront homes sold on average per month for the past year - and the current inventory of lake front homes for sale is 100 - then the current absorption rate would be 100/5 - or 20 months. In other words it would take about 20 months to deplete the current inventory based on the recent sales pace. Since we have many specialized segments of real estate in the Deep Creek market - here are the current absorption rates for the most popular segments;
Lakefront homes with private Type A boat docks - 89 currently on the market divided 2.5 average sold per month (30 sold in the past 12 months) = 35.6 months of inventory…or in other words there is around 3 years of inventory on the market at this current pace.
Lakefront homes with single slips - 38 currently on the market divided by .4 average sold per month (5 sold in the past 12 months) = 95 months of inventory.
Lake Access homes with single boat slips - 72 currently on the market divided by 1.33 average sold per month (16 sold in the past 12 months) = 54 months of inventory.
Lake Access homes without boat slips - 39 currently on the market divided by .58 average sold per month (7 sold in the past 12 months) = about 78 month of inventory.
Wisp Real Estate (residential atop Wisp Mountain) - 37 currently on the market divided by 1.25 average sold per month (15 sold in the past 12 months) = 30 months of inventory. Includes Villages of Wisp town homes.
Lake Area homes (meaning not “water oriented” - just homes in the general Deep Creek Lake area) - 71 homes currently on the market divided by 1.66 average sold per month (20 sold in the past 12 months) = 42 months of inventory.
Please keep in mind the absorption rate statistic is somewhat flawed by it’s own nature - it only takes into consideration recent past performance - it only looks backwards. It tends to underestimate the market going forward and the quickness of how fast things can turn around. Use this statistic carefully when evaluating your real estate opportunities.
However, this number does have some significant meaning for both potential buyers and sellers.
For buyers - a higher number means inventory is up and serious sellers will be competing for your business - thus your chances of getting a “better deal” increases.
For sellers - a higher number usually means more competition and you better make sure both the price and condition of your house compare favorably to your competition! - especially if you want to sell your house to sell in a normal marketing time frame.
Selling a house is both science and art. It’s part science because numbers and statistics are used to come up with a value based on recent selling prices of comparable homes, days on market, absorption rates, number of homes currently on the market, etc. It’s partly an art because in a specialized resort market like Deep Creek each vacation property is unique in it’s own way - whether it’s the topography (steep vs. flat), orientation (northwest for late afternoon sun or east for morning sun), views (filtered lake views or wide open expansive lake views), boat dock (private Type A vs. single slip), condition of the house (newer vs older), etc…the list can go on and on. It’s extremely hard in this market to find two properties that are nearly identical so rarely can your compare apples to apples - except for town homes and condos.
Whether you are buying or selling Garrett County or Deep Creek Lake real estate - give us a call or drop us an e-mail - we are the experts on the local resort and vacation home market - we can guide you thru the entire process. Nobody has helped more buyers and sellers than us over the past 30 years!